There are going to be multiple negative economic indicators surfacing in the next 60 days as the first wave signals of a deep and prolonged recession begin to reach shore. Think of it like an economic meteor that hit the mid-Atlantic while only a few people were tracking its inbound trajectory and prepared for what was likely.
We are not likely to see much good economic news, but on the positive side, most readers are prepared. Again, I will repeat… If you did not purchase a home this year, you are already ahead financially.
Housing sales are dropping fast, but housing values are, on a regional basis, holding steady – for now. However, the banks and lending institutions are preparing for those values, and the contained equity, to drop and disappear precipitously.
Today Bloomberg is reporting that JPMorgan Chase is shifting around 1,000 employees in the mortgage side of finance with some being laid-off and others being reassigned to different parts of the bank and financial services. This should not come as a surprise, but it does align with other less noticeable moves in the banking and home loan sector.
(Reuters) – PMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) is laying off hundreds of employees in its home-lending business and reassigning hundreds more this week, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
More than 1,000 employees will be affected, the report said, and about half of them will be moved to different divisions with the bank. “Our staffing decision this week was a result of cyclical changes in the mortgage market,” a spokesperson for the bank said.
[…] “We were able to proactively move many impacted employees to new roles within the firm and are working to help the remaining affected employees find new employment within Chase and externally,” the spokesperson added. (read more)
The only things most Americans will remember about Jan 6th, 2021 are:
-gasoline prices were $1.99 per gallon
-grocery shelves weren’t empty,
-the cost of living was 20% less
-their 401K was worth more
-our borders were more secure
-crime was less
-the world was a safer place.
2.75APR 30 YR
A very small price to pay if it will reduce the earth’s temperature by .00000000000000001 degree over the next 100,000 years.
Sarcasm I know. But according to NASA data, the temperatures of the other planets ALSO go up and down at the same time as the Earth. The WHOLE thing is the sun. A single volcano eruption has more long-term impact than hundreds of years of human output. If ever there was a thing worthy of being called “the big lie” this is it.
It is quite possible human release of CO2 is stalling the coming ice age.
Human emissions will delay next ice age by 50,000 years, study says
https://www.carbonbrief.org/human-emissions-will-delay-next-ice-age-by-50000-years-study-says/
Check out the snowball earth hypothesis and the slush age.
“Study says” 🤣
I’ll hang around and see if they are telling the truth.
Human activity does not now, has not ever, and will not in the future ever, cause the climate to change.
Period.
All I can say is….God created the heavens and the earth. He then created man/woman and placed them on the earth. I truly believe God knew the advances that men could and would make throughout the ages.
Knowing all that, do I believe God would have allowed those man made advances to destroy His creation?
Not a chance.
I will wait and see! Show me!
Carbon(dioxide)brief? Yes must be true then! Sarc.
Makes sense … if grass eating cow farts and burps are causing global warming … then we need to imprison all vegans and feed them beef burgers.
I ask moonbats the following; The earth is 4.6 Billion years old. Name for me a period of time in 4.6 Billion years when the climate was NOT changing. Cue the crickets.
The earth as an entity cannot be dated. It’s a ludicrous foundation for any technical conclusion, especially concerning climate. Determining Earth age has been a key factor in developing humanistic philosophy for many years and it needs to be critically reevaluated.
You judge a planet’s age by its own number of assumed 24 hour rotations and loops around a sun? Not even a valid dating or measuring mechanism. Carbon dating is not valid on anything that old.
I know it’s not your personal conclusion, but don’t buy the secular textbook bullshyt on this complex topic. Those scientists are just as agenda driven as anyone.
I live in the Appalachian Mountains composed of former Sedimentary Rocks (sand) clearly in layers from inland seas, now forming mountains. So I am going to assume it didn’t just happen since the mountains show extensive erosion has also been ongoing.
“The earth as an entity cannot be dated.”
It’s age would have to be measured against some cosmic constant in order to measure its relative decay.
Scientific evidence suggests there are no fixed points in space, which seems to suggest that time is relative, e.g., light travels slower near a black hole.
The earth’s age is purely conjectural.
Anyone who has ever dropped something precious and watched it fall to the ground, knowing it’s going to shatter all over the place, but unable to move, as there is no way you can do anything about it… knows that time slows down during such events. I have heard that this is what happens during a car crash, and I can absolutely see how that would be true. Can’t you just….feel how it would…feel?
Einstein’s line about the relativity of time depending on whether you are sitting on a hot stove or by a pretty girl…yeah.
Just go back to junior college and you’ll see that if not precisely 4.6 billion years old, it’s within a margin of 1%. There’s too many fields of science that corroborate this age and it’s all first-year classes.
Uniformitarianism is the theory that carbon dating can estimate the age of the earth by extrapolation. Newton and other greats had no problem taking the Bible literally.
Too many don’t comprehend this & are unable or unwilling, to look at what’s behind it!
“This time it’s worse! It’s unprecedented!”
Where did the mike-thick glaciers go?
“Unbeliever!!!”
I had a hilarious exchange with a climate zealot last week. Every time she said “unprecedented”, I sent her three links to events in geologic history where the same thing happened – but worse.
The end result was that Monty Python skit about the Argument Clinic.
check out “GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” (GSM) –and the scientists who study the sun—the sun and it’s solar storms (or lack thereof) have FAR more impact on Earth’s climate than ANYTHING humans do on earth. But the idiots who actually think we tiny humans can “change” the earth’s climate are beyond delusional and those elites are banking on that (and using it to gain more control over said idiots while laughing all the way to the bank)
Wait a minute! Are you telling that that gigantic nuclear fusion factory that we revolve around has more to do with the climate of all the planets in the solar system than humans? Say it ain’t so!
It has always been the Sun. I learned that in junior high. That was back in 1971. When they actually taught science and critical thinking. Now most of the schools just indoctrinate.
The lockdown woke up a lot of parents, but I fear it’s way too late for most now.
It is a lie but the anthropogenic part is true – world leader militaries all have control over the weather and can do with it what they please. They’ve had this capability for decades, they just don’t publicize it. They can warm up or cool down the earth with ease now thanks to sending energy into the ionosphere. So if it’s global warming, it is indeed because of humans – who could have been prevented it with the tech we have now.
Poor God lost control of the weather! /sarc
I’ll agree that sane people will remember this. But I recall when the price of gas went up when the pipeline issue occurred. Found a fellow consumer of about my age or slower and reminded him of the Carter administration gas rationing. Turned out this guy was as clueless as any millennial out there.
We are very much surrounded by very stupid people who will not believe their own eyes or their memories. Their brains are all controlled though input from the MSM.
The stupid is astounding!!! Thanks public gubbermint indoctrination schools.
There has always been a considerable supply of stupid.
What’s different is that now they are given highly paid positions of influence and authority.
Those who were not allowed to take charge of any small game on the playground in 1955 are now running the country, and have been for some time.
Nah. Just remember the AVERAGE IQ is 100, a not exceptionally bright level. That’s the AVERAGE. You know what that means-half the population is BELOW 100.
Ron White- Comedian from Texas, “You can’t fix Stupid”
But you sure can make more of it!
the public skool system has to be destroyed and public skool teachers reprogramed.
“Turned out this guy was as clueless as any millennial out there.”
I frequently encounter this.
The man I am reminding about history argues that since he didn’t experience the event himself, it has no epistemic certitude.
Yikes! These kids are stupid.
Was it george carlin?
Consider the stupidity of the average american after being in a public propaganda school, or after watching the ‘news’.
Then recognize that half are dumber.
And I would add,…we had the greatest president in united states history working for FREE BECAUSE HE LOVES THIS COUNTRY!!!!!!
So dastardly to not take his pay!!! The brainwashing will obviously have to continue, comrade. The shine is coming off the MAGA in just 2 years, when the democRats steal the sElections this Nov. or useless rebubRats do their usual nothing burger and We are anticipating 2024 glory…….
I feel like I’m in the movie “Ground Hog Day”, for those who missed that movie; Will the squirrel ever get out of the round spinning political cage???
I didn’t see “Idiocracy” at the time (tho’ I read the short story it was adapted from) but I saw a clip from it the other day where the hero is looking out the window for the problem and says “I’m no biologist, but I know that plants need water”– and I thought–
Beyond peak idiocracy– because he KNEW without being a biologist. Nowadays, “brilliant” SCOTUS nominees slough off similar questions with “Can’t tell ya. I’m no biologist.”
Similarly, a teacher just busted the other day for teaching CRT actually said, “I don’t teach CRT. I know because I was never taught it –I didn’t go to law school, and they didn’t teach it to me in grad school.”
Hard to tell if they are brilliant strategists or just completely stoopid.
Hard to tell if they are brilliant strategists or just completely stoopid.
Third possibility: They are flat-out liars, and evil into the bargain.
The empty store shelves compared to now and then…I have often wondered… up until the last few years, the empty shelves are an unprecedented concept. I wondered what happened to the ‘expired’ foodstuff on the shelves.
Where, back then, did it all go? We also had unprecedented shopping in Walmart, for food and durable goods. Two issues, first the food…and waste…Always full shelves, never hearing about how expired food is dealt with. We do know that corporate MBA types look to find extra “profits” in controlling “careless waste”….unpurchased food is an unproductive product.
One way to look at it is that empty shelves are a business control for monetary gain. Less products and higher price. Perhaps tighter production to reduce loss in unpurchased foodstuffs. And move products off the shelves and into your grocery cart. Ca-ching.
Now to durable goods and the housing market. Americans want long lasting and affordable durable goods–long lasting is contrary to consumerism, BTW. An exploding housing market offers that purchasing power. People need a lot of things in their homes be it a new or older one…sheets, towels, furniture, window coverings and hardware, dishes, glasses, kids toys, home appliances, lawn stuff (hoses, lawn mowers, etc then kids stuff). Apartment living restricts that purchase power due to space/ storage issues. Can we say small rental size, single family housing being built in Florida? Black Rock, anyone–behind the curtain?
Durable goods typically last 3 years. Americans IMHO, want longer lasting goods. China has lost something in the last few years.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durables.asp
Manufacturing concepts with housing micromanage every single cost…from nails, screws etc up the supply chain.
From Sundance’ article…it tells me something much bigger is afoot with regards to the housing and manufacturing industries.
Those are fascinating perspectives to ponder, thank you.
Re: food waste
Ive been told by employees, that the hot food at supermarket deli counters is routinely thrown in the garbage.
All those fried chickens, corn dogs, chimichangas, etc…..
Not given to the needy; thrown in the garbage
And employees are not allowed to pick/take and save the food.
Crazy
We have learned about the chain here, thanks to SD.
That food waste effects the entire chain.
All that labor cost, farming costs, energy for trucks and fryers and heat lamps……gone.
wooosh! In the garbage dumpster
“And employees are not allowed to pick/take and save the food.”
My freshman year at college required that I live on campus. A student who worked the closing shift at McDonald’s would bring all the food that had not sold during that day and divided it up among the students in our dormitory.
Nothing was ever wasted.
A friend told me that he used to leave bags of “disposable” hot deli food outside the dumpsters, for the homeless.
He was caught on camera and disciplined for it.
He wasn’t even eating it, just leaving it ourptside the dumpster for the homeless.
This was Albertsons, a west coast supermarket,
To throw in another wrinkle:
Has anyone else noticed that the freshness of supermarket foods has taken a serious dive?
I am pretty much addicted to fresh fruit (maybe because I don’t eat refined sugar, so fruit and very dark chocolate are my sweets). Except for what I can get at exurban farm stands when I travel there, everything fresh I buy now in my suburb seems to go bad very quickly.
Today I glanced at the display of strawberries, blueberries, and raspberries when buying something else and noticed that almost every container showed a spot of mold or some other questionable coloring.
Milk and cream also fail now pretty often before their sell-by dates.
Not at Publix (FL). Fruit is always fresh and colorful. I also keep my refrigerator at 38 deg so fruit like raspberries and strawberries deteriorate slower.
Just throwing this out, since some folks may not be aware of it. There’s an old “Heloise” tip for milk and cream. If you put a pinch of salt into the container as soon as you’ve opened it, that will extend the time before the item spoils. Sometimes by quite a lot. Although it’s always more expensive, I also spring for the ultra-pasteurized stuff, since it normally has a much longer use-by interval to begin with.
“Where, back then, did it all go?”
Grocery stores are given generous write-off provisions on food items.
In India, as much as 1/3 of the agricultural harvest is lost to spoilage because they lack adequate refrigeration facilities.
In the USA, the food loss is far lower. It is a manageable expense.
Interesting comment and something to think about.
Your comment about durable good was indeed interesting Aggiegirl.
Now a durable good lasts only three years, when I was a girl a durable good lasted almost a house wife’s life time and could often be handed down and was repairable and reused.
Now we throw washing machines and dryers, hot water heaters into the dump when they use to literally last the life time of a man and wife keeping a house.
So did sheets, towels, blankets and other things that newly weds set up housekeeping with.
I think that the tools that men used around the house also lasted often for several generations.
Now it seems so much of these new things break, sheets and towels rip and tear.
The quality is just poor junk from China is all that we seem to be able to find anywhere.
What gives?
I was saying the same thing to a neighbor just the other day. We were talking about how our disposable society goes against the BBB and GND, I said to her “will the BBB or Green New Deal usher in a wave of appliance repair men”.
PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE.
Look at the shipping flows this past two weeks. China appears to be shipping to everywhere except Port of Long Beach, and turning a lot of the Shanghai output inward.
There may be more than one reason that the sight of empty shelves becomes more common
Down with the Biden Regime.
Also Jan. 6th was a set up.
Expect a continuation of extreme daily gaslighting on the economy, well everything. The lies have become so bold across every subject matter that it is crystal clear that they don’t care that we know they are lying. Based on this increasing level of disregard, expect the next 2 elections to be the most fraudulent in history. They don’t care that we’ll know.
They have found enough success in the practice that they can openly ignore any blowback.
“We have gotten away with SO much, for SO long, that we can now get away with ANYTHING!” is ONE answer.
That they have effectively cut off any “feedback” which would enable them to steer the boat, is another possible explanation.
The only “blowback” they might be listening to is from Bill Maher, and I am anticipating at some point they will memory hole him.
Years ago I pushed the phrase, “WE the willing, have been doing so much, with so little, for so long; we are now qualified to do anything with nothing”
I had that sign on my wall for a long long time.
Hence my handle.
As I remember it was, We the willing, lead by the unknowing……
They are kidding themselves.
And the January 6 hostages are there to serve as stark reminders to the rest of us that any outward objection to the coming fraudulent election will resort in more incarcerations.
What we really need is another million + march on DC and shut it down. I for one do not understand why the truckers, at least the Independent Ones have not gone on a national strike over diesel prices.
Nope, screw the march. Blow all bridges leading to and out of DC
Funny, I thought the first thing that needs to disappear is the MSM. I always thought the first thing Trump should have done when taking the office was to secure manual voting only to eliminate fraud and revoke FDC licensing of the major networks due to outright lies. Remember how Hillary was gonna win? There is no news. It’s total fabrication. The plug literally needs pulled.
The news is purely Pravda now.
Second look at the neutron bomb? Save the buildings, anyway. 😉
They’re playing with fire. When flyover country has had enough, these tools will wish they played things a little differently. The coming diesel oil and food shortages just might do it.
It’s very sad that nobody in congress dares to call out the disastrous policies of this Obiden Regime. If it’s left to We The People, then We The People need to strike and protest (by not buying, not selling, etc) and loudly call out the BS this cabal is pushing. It seems like thus far, only Gov DeSantis is doing anything. The rest of the States need to follow suit.
They don’t care because the Fake News covers for them. That is how they get away with lying all the time.
It’s only a small thing, because the public in general don’t pay attention…
Today Powell under questioning from a subcommittee was forced to admit Bag ‘o Bones Biden was lying when he tried to gaslight Americans into thinking Putin/Ukraine was the sole reason for the level of inflation and poverty inducing increases in the price of gasoline.
Which MSM propaganda outlet will report this? We know the answer.
You are so accurate, they are blatant now because they have the media and Big Tech
There are not that many Americans left, who are getting their news from MSM, or even the legacy media websites.
But THAT is how they continue to put out “their message”, and the absolute control they exhibit, with all repeating the same line, only discredits them more.
But, they have used POLLS, for many years, to guage “how well they are getting their message out” and to test changing NOT the policy, but how they are SELLING it.
And, because MAGA voters don’t DO polling, and the MAGA movement has steadily grown, an ever increasing percentage of the population aren’t giving them feedback.
Imagine new coke, and only the people who LIKED new coke were polled.
The Coke people would be baffled; ALL of our polls show New Coke is very popular, and yet SALES are abysmal!
They are literally flying blind.
Agreed. I have no landline and am not surveyed so for their purposes I don’t exist.
“They are literally flying blind.”
…and they are at the controls. This will end badly.
As long as the ignorant (blind) population continue to listen the The View, CNN, and MSNBC, they get to dictate the “message.”
totally agree MAGA refuses polling — I have for years now
Even the most gullible feel the hurt in the wallet while filling the fuel tank.
Could not happen to nicer people!
They stole the last election so my guess is the next election(s) might not even be held.
Some BS national emergency will be the reason.
CWII would be a first guess.
The media is gleefully praising Elon’s “daughter” who turned 18 this month. “She” wants no relationship with “her” father so now Miss Wilson can legally change her name at 18. She was Elon’s son by birth but now Elon mysteriously acquired another daughter, overnight!
Elon’s getting a taste of this idiocy in his own family and he’s getting red-pilled.
“She was Elon’s son by birth.”
If Elon Musk misses his son, he can adopt me. Being heir to the world’s richest man is a cross I can bear.
The first winds of Dimon’s economic hurricane.
Dimon trashed President Trump and gave billions of dollars to Biden and the Democrats. That’s how much they hate us!
You spelled that wrong. The i is supposed to be an e.
Property valuations for 2023 are starting to drop here in Washington State and they are up around 30% from last year, which is going to be financially devastating for a lot of people, especially those who are on fixed incomes. This just feels like another Blackrock technique to destroy the middle class by forcing people out of single family homes so that government run multi-family developments can be put in their place.
“You will own nothing and you will be happy…”
We live in an area here where those who are fleeing the rotten Dem controlled place are fleeing to.
Are property values are sky rocketing and homes are selling like hot cakes.
It is almost impossible to find a house to buy and as soon as a home is placed on the market it is sold.
We have been receiving strange calls from out of state people who want to buy our agricultural property.
They have been offering outrageous prices.
Our son who has several rentals in the area has been offered huge prices for his rentals by out of state buyers.
Strange, very strange.
Same here. Median price of house is 600k. Most buyers paying cash, no mortgage. Homeless numbers increasing.
It is not strange at all. Many of us in the cratering blue states can read the writing on the wall. Many, many are fleeing and priority is buying property with land to raise our own food.
We are trying to get our house on the market and will be fleeing in the next month or two. And we are a little behind the game, in my opinion, but not because of me!
Oh, and yes, I will happily buy sight unseen. Video tour only. That is happening everywhere. Take a look at Tennessee.
I had forgotten about the video tours.
The strange thing about people offering to buy our places is we have not put them on the market and no video tours are available.
They do seem a bit desperate though, it is a very new thing for us here, we have been so isolated for such a long time.
Most of us are not happy about it but not much we can do.
Depending on how farvoff the cliff we go, having a piece of paper, that SAYS you “own” the land may become meaningless.
Throughout human history, you held land you could defend against those who would take it.
I have little confidence, it will NOT come to that.
We have kept what you say very much in mind here Dutchman.
We have been paying attention to how the laws are being ignored.
Here we pay much attention to who are friends are and who they are not.
God Bless America.
When you decide the Tennessee real estate market is insane, try Kentucky. While we have a 6% income tax, property and sales taxes are lower. You can buy a semi rural house with an acre or two for $200k.
Might want to keep that information to yourself VibeMan.
Send more people to Utah or some place far away from your lovely area.
We were looking to buy here in Ga but if the latest “election” is any indication, this place is a mess. Still.
Agreed on Tennessee.
Know what you mean. As the lead owner of an out-of-state single-family home in a desirable area, I’m the one who receives offers from out of the blue, with increasing frequency. The people making these contacts seem desperate.
Only if you want to be able to feed yourself and family. I like to eat. Think of all the people out there who are oblivious to what is coming.
Our hard working Amish neighbor has started building spec homes and they are selling very fast.
He bought some land a bit outside of town and built seven houses in a small development.
They were sold as fast as he could get them up.
He is now starting on a new group with ten houses planned this time.
Nice 2000 sf. homes with two car garages on one acre lots.
He sells them to the “English”, smart man.
Offers from Blackrock? They’re buying up property by the boatloads
Not so far unless they are sending in “front men” or families to live in them as decoys.
They are all being purchased and occupied by families who are happy as clams and settling in nice.
The paper work is all kosher and the names on the dotted line match up.
The Amish are not simple and as backwards as many thing they are.
They are very savvy business people, nothing gets by them when it comes to a business deal.
Excellent for you and your son!
Sure that has nothing to do with the way crime is going crazy out there?
I live in a deep blue state but in a tiny cow town no one has heard of. We have virtually no crime or traffic nor fabulous paying jobs. Housing is nowhere near the prices of the big cities. People want to move here for our excellent schools…something unheard of anymore. But we DESPISE our government. That’s why EVERYONE wants to move out that doesn’t have kids or home schools. But we could never get enough for our homes to buy something similar elsewhere. We have to wait for the market to crash for things to level off.
We had a different situation here.
Living in blue Colorado but in a rural Red county and it is nice.
But like you our prices home prices were low so we could not sell out and move.
But the agriculture prices were also low so my husband and I were able to buy our farms over the last 40 years and pay them off as well as our home.
Now sadly we have been discovered and I do not know what will happen.
We have been here for over 40 years and have paid our properties off but I am sure the taxes will go up up up.
At least we do not have payments to make as well as taxes to pay.
So far so good.
We are hoping to leave a legacy for out kids and grandkids, we are old enough now to pass on from this earth and leave it all to them.
They can sell or keep, it is up to them.
I can’t wait for my property value to do. I hope it happens before the commies in Dallas County reassess my property taxes.
My home is a place to live, not an investment. For me it is all about cash flow. The lower my value the lower my taxes. My home has value as a sanctuary. That’s all.
Spoke to a young man who said three “refugee” families from the Communist state of California had recently moved into his nice neighbourhood. We are in Texas.
He said they were all very very quick to reassure their neighbours they were conservative and fled for the well known reasons.
I could hear the young man breathing a sigh of relief as he told that story.
Yes, I know that many people are fleeing Cali for “redder” pastures but unfortunately many are also “tru-blue” voters who bring their failed ideologies with them to their new states…I am a life-long Washington resident and remember the influx of Californians coming here in the late 80s and turning my once purple, but generally sane, state into an overpriced dystopian Hard Left collectivist!
Hope you are able to save Texas – if it goes Blue, we’re all in a lot of trouble!
I think of them as locust.
Move in and destroy then move on to the next place to destroy.
I remember when I moved here in 1974 how nice it was.
Unfortunately Bet, the Mexifornia refugees, conservative or not have jacked up the property values and the property taxes for all of us.
As happened in 2008, if home valuations drop, tax income for municipaities drops significantly, as well.
And, many municipalities are on the edge of bankruptcy as it is.
Add to that all the ‘services’ that require gas and diesel; trash collection, police, fire, ems.
I expect “Big cities” to be hurting, big time.
Sure am glad I don’t live in one!
Not to mention those shrinking unfunded pension plans.
we bought our modest house on an acre lot for 255k in 2016
Grants Pass, OR
Its listed on Zillow as worth 425k currently.
We will never sell it until both my kids are out of the house.
We are raising them here, period.
Yet my property taxes go up every year, beacause of the valuations.
We couldn’t sell and buy again anyway because anything worth a crap around here is 400k plus.
Exactly
The value of my home dropped 11k this last month according to Zillow.
That’s OK I am going to ride this out.
Been prepping for the last 2 years.
And I am on a fixed income.
Sen. Warren to Jerome Powell: “You know what’s worse than high inflation with low unemployment? High inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work. I hope you consider that before you drive the US economy off a cliff.”
Powell says Fed will need to see “compelling” evidence that inflation coming down to slow rate hikes:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisRugaber
Powell should have said “What’s worse is Government Debt-Funded Deficits that drive up rates faster than the Fed does, starving our consumer economy into Recession and crowding out investments to create a Depression.”
He should have said “Sen. Warren, if you would balance the federal budget, we would not have to raise interest rates. Good day.”
“Housing sales are dropping fast, but housing values are, on a regional basis, holding steady – for now.”
The Fed continues to hint about trimming their balance sheet. They have lots of mortgage-backed securities bought in 2008.
The time to sell them is now—before the bottom falls out of real estate again.
A sudden surge in adjustable rate mortgages is currently underway. Nonetheless it’s going to be be tough to sell a home and relocate. Lots of people going to stand pat and keep their low rate loans on their current homes.
I am sure there is a rare situation, but who would take out an adjustable mortgage when rates on fixed mortgages were recently very low?
First time buyers and people who are relocating.
$99/sqft on a newbuild that is now 4 years old, 2.75% 30 years. I’m staying put.
You will know home sales are really bad when the media start blaming Putin for it.
Anyone thinking about home equity loans: don’t.
We do not talk about fluctuations in meters, pints, newtons , inches …
These units of measure persist as they should.
Money, properly defined, is a unit if measure.
The u.s dollar us not money.
‘JPMorgan Chase is shifting around 1,000 employees in the mortgage side of finance.’ -Sundance
Doubling mortgage rates from 3 to 6 percent in a few months is a nasty shock that the system was not designed to handle.
Giant mortgage securitizers use Treasury futures to hedge (imperfectly) movements in the mortgage market.
But Treasuries and Treasury futures have experienced massive volatility this year, as measured by the MOVE index – the bond market’s equivalent to VIX for stocks.
Out-of-control bond volatility makes hedging as difficult as dodging a wildly-shifting stream of bullets.
Gov-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae (symbol FNMA) and Freddie Mac (symbol FMCC) are now penny stocks, trading for around 50 cents a share.
Both have lost over three-fourths of their value in the past 12 months. In all probability, they already are insolvent.
Jerome Powell will tighten until something breaks. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are good candidates for a sudden, fatal shattering, requiring another bailout from Clowngress to the tune of hundreds of billions.
Get to work, Nancy and Chuck!
The slippery slope brought to you by Bungles Biden and his friends at BlackRock? You will own nothing and like it.
I can see a future where a lot of former owners will now be paying rent.
The Orwellian nightmare is here until We the People Fight Back
They are so brazen and bold hey will continue with election 🗳 rigging because
no one exposed the fraud of 2020, shame on weak GOP, they are Uniparty and
part of their this problem.
It was exposed. No one in the “justice” system cared enough to do anything.
If someone gets laid off and cannot find another job, they can lose their house, and property values will collapse.
This reminds me of 2009 when banks foreclosed on homes, basically taking years or decades of equity building from people.
Reminds me too – probably due to the same reason – obama is pulling the strings and running Joe
Happened to me. Took 11 years to recover.
Same here, lost everything including my home and 401K, took 12-13 years to finally move out of CT, to Pensacola FL where I was able to buy a small home at 2.99% fixed last November. Regardless of the market value going up or down, the home I purchased was 152K which is the part of the market that I hope will maintain its value a bit more, especially in Florida. Taxes are reasonable and I’m grateful I left CT although I do miss some dear friends there. Thank you to all those that contribute here.
Glad to hear that Mark..youll be fine..we bought on Amelia Island and in Ocala fl.
Sounds like you made a great move.
Florida is so very stable and solid!
Very hard to lose your home and your 401k though.
Been there a bit ourselves.
It was terrible back in the early 80s.
We were just starting out and could not buy a home, the interest rates shot up to 18%.
There were neighborhoods in some places in Colorado where most jobs were in the petroleum industry and people were being laid off and families left in the middle of the night.
They just walked away from their mortgaged homes, running away and disappearing into the wind.
There were more foreclosed signs on homes in some neighborhoods than there were homes that were lived in.
It was bleak and frightening.
Farms and ranches were being foreclosed on that had been in families for generations and bankers were taking sheriffs with them when they went out to talk to their clients about the loans because they were being shot at by the farmers.
This is when my husband and I first got out of college and went into finance as loan officers and it was tough.
It was a dark time and a bit scary and all of the newscasters talked about it being the end of the world for America.
But we did pull out of it and our country moved on and rebuilt.
My husband and I were not able to buy our first home for a long time.
We drove junker cars for a long time and did not buy a new car for the first 16 years of our marriage.
We learned the difference between a want and a need.
I am not saying that what is happening now is good, it is not.
It is planned and deliberate and un necessary.
It needs to be stopped, but we can survive this and fix this.
Biden and his co conspiritors need to be prosecuted and jailed .
They are traitors.
“Biden and his co conspiritors need to be prosecuted and jailed .”
By whom? Nobody is standing in line to do this.
My brother never recovered..Lost everything, came to live with us, just getting back on his feet and died of cancer 7 weeks after diagnosed..MBA from Carnegie Mellon, still breaks my heart.
There are so many heartbreaking stories.
Financial ruin is just awful and often is done on purpose.
Joe Biden and his vicious administration are criminals of the worst kind and need to be arrested, jailed and prosecuted for what they are bringing on our country.
So very sorry! I am sure you miss him terribly. It was wonderful, though, that you opened your arms to him when he needed it! And as I am more convinced the older I grow, now he is in a position to help you.💕
That is such a shame A Ronin, it really is.
The key to a healthy economy is everywhere there is jobs and the government stops collecting and spending money. Banks are just modern slave masters. Many people simply don’t mind working their entire lives to pay them back.
If someone’s house is repossessed, the bank sells it to get their principal and back payments and costs back, then the defaulting borrower gets the balance. If there no balance after catching up, then there was no equity. If the house has equity, the borrower can sell and pay off the loan and keep the equity.
A friend is trying to buy a house with mostly cash. I tried to explain that he might be able to catch a bargain in 6 months but he is certain that the great Biden economy will keep prices high.
Will cash loose its value in 6 months?
I remember part of that fiasco included people of color, mostly women, being talked into the ‘affordability’ of balloon mortgages because they were “assured” their wages would increase in the economy, to keep pace with adjustable ballooning mortgages. There were many who were duped as they got laid off or their wages did not occur and lost their newly acquired homes.
And that’s where Blackrock steps in (usually via one of their local agents DBA an unassuming business name).
“We buy houses for cash”. We’ve all seen their ads in local Penny Saver flyers, etc.
Nothing quite like profiting off of another man’s misfortune, especially when that misfortune was engineered by your cabal.
” Think of it like an economic meteor that hit the mid-Atlantic while only a few people were tracking its inbound trajectory and prepared for what was likely.”
Are you sure that’s a meteor?
Looks more like an asteroid.
Never underestimate Biden Incs ability to scree things up. Give him a few more months and the moon will be hitting the Atlantic.
Ugh, why did I buy that house from Putin earlier this year?
Democrats said that Putin was going to invade Westchester County!
Question: Will the stock market substantially fall from here or is a recession already priced in???
Josh is bullish on stocks but who knows…
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/16/betrayed-americans/
The rape of Christendom
This is related to refi loan. At 5%+ refinancing is going to be very limited.
And its not a sign in itself of anything. Better indicator are home builders, and they seem to project a strong Q3.
6.5% mortgages will pause and likely have home price drop 10-20%. But nothing else beyond that will happen in this sector.
All raw material have dropped. Lumber down 50% since march, steel, aluminum, etc.. major drop.
Home builder are actually in good shape…. its just that nobody want to refi when loan start at 5%+
In addition, I sell scrap that I collect. Aluminum and steel are falling fast. The price of these is directly related to manufacturing demand. Copper is holding strong and is more tied to construction.
Interesting VibeMan.
I can remember when 5% was hallelujah time.
i remember when 5% was considered low. Because it was historically.
This is what sent me to law school in the 1980’s. I was AVP for an international developer, FNMA underwriter managing several hundred loans and 7 employees. The Southern California office was gone by the time I graduated from law school. Its was fortuitous for me. Not sure it will be like that for the 20 somethings right now.
Incoming!
UK is moving to use oil shortages to force (lock downs) to save fuel. Even though they are exporting oil! They want people to stay home and work.
My senses are telling me someone in the west is going to go nuclear against Russia. Green agenda serviced, lock downs keeping people away from fall out.
Detonated Nukes will prove / disprove Climate Change for the Dims / Rerpugs.
Take yer pick.
Think of it like an economic meteor that hit the mid-Atlantic while only a few people were tracking its inbound trajectory and prepared for what was likely.
Beautiful! What an evocative image of the disaster coming. Tsunamis hit the coasts do they not?
I salute you Sundance.
Wasn’t Jamie Dimon really anti-Trump
Yes, he was!
So glad to have refinanced a 30 year mortgage at 2.625% last October (no points).
Th only bad thing is that it makes it hard to move from this Blue State I live in.
This did not have to happen.
FN demon-rats.
And repugs
Uni-party gotta uni-party.
The supply chains arecwresting control away from the AI systems that have bren running them for years, in some cases they have to do it indirectly, by changing the codes and algorythms.
This is because AI is just speeded up stupidity, its NOT intelligent, and can only operate on previous data. Any rapid change, that it has never ‘seen’ before, it can’t “handle”.
Point is, treepers,..just as we have “stocked up” on food, till we can’t fit anymore in, now we need to watch closely “durable goods”.
They will empty out the warehouses, with “fire sales”, cause the stuff simply isn’t MOVING, and as Just In Time says, any time material stands still it increases price and cost.
Once they have liquidated, they will restock at smaller amounts, and higher prices.
So, car parts like Tires and brake pads/shoes,…etc.
Grain grinders, vac-u-seal type food storage, etc. …WATCH for significant price reductions, and STOCK UP.
SOME markets, like panels, inverters, chg controllers and batteries for off grid solar, generators etc. may not experience this, as sales are growing,…
Bottom line, if you have $, spend it now, as it will only be worth less, down the line.
I would encourage to choose carefully how to spend the $$s.
I agree that it will be worth less so chose what you and your family will need or what you think those in your area might be willing to trade for.
We have decided to keep it simple.
What can we store and what is most important for keeping us safe and alive.
That is what we are spending on now.
Thing will maybe improve sometime in the future, when and how is a guess.
So until that happens we try to prepare and hang on the best we can.
None of us can prepare to live for ever like some kind of old timey Mountain Man or Woman.
Our society has just progressed to far for that.
And most of them did not go out and survive in the wilderness for ever either, they came back and stocked up at some trading post once in a while themselves.
So we are all stuck trying to balance in between filling our pantries and freezers with what we can and hoping the stores will have at least something and tucking away some dollars for when we do get to town to do a little shopping to fill in with what we need like our pioneer great grandpa’s and grandma’s did when they went to town one a month and bought supplies ( flour, sugar, oil, soap, three yards of calico etc) from the general store.
Meanwhile they bartered with the neighbors for a few things they could not grow or make themselves.
No one can ever really make it on their own.
That tough dude from Queens was a tough businessman who operated at the speed of light, which in business, is what business has to do, to either beat the competition or stay competitive. The guy from Queens, knew that and ran the government on somewhat of similar ideals. A business plan for Americans.
Re-posting a link here, that explains durables:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durables.asp
Ya know, I reeally miss Sears and Kenmore quality. My Kenmore fridge is 28 years old and still performing well. As is my stove, and dishwasher. I think part of the failures, aside from sears board of directors…being irresponsible, was also a way to bring in ’emerging markets’ or rather, “foist them on unsuspecting American consumers”.
I had read a while back, about the problems with Samsung fridge…repair parts (and repair technicians) a few to several years ago, were very costly and rare during the Trump Train Trip. I thought, then, why would I knowingly buy a product that would fail in a few short years (that was another complaint). And the failure time was….3 years.
Thanks for the link. Good info.
I am looking at everything I know I’ll need in a year and getting it now.
Alternative power and cooking as well
This is nothing new. Everytime interest rates increase, there are layoffs. Nature of mortgage lending.
Looks like my spidey sense (aka God telling me) was correct. We just made a lateral house move (sold high bought high) from Communist WA to West Virginia. We did take a hit on our interest rate but we got more house, more and better land and dropped our mortgage by 90k.
I told my wife a few months back that this will be the last year for a long time (if ever) that we would be able to get the equity out of our house and escape the west coast iron curtain.
God is good.
Congratulations !
Drove through WV yesterday…S to N..beautiful state.
Yes it is one of the most beautiful states.
Welcome to my beautiful WVA. I am in southern most county. Still coal country and still beautiful I LOVE WVA I left here for 22 years and lived in beautiful TN but it was NEVER home to me I could not wait to get home!!!
West Virginia, Mountain Mama, take me home, country roads…
WV is such a beautiful state.
WA has beautiful countryside and use to be a beautiful state great timing for your move!
Appropriate that Sundance uses the term “Sector” in the title of this article.
It is currently the one place where the trends cannot be hidden by headlines nor Whale Induced market bounces (used to trap the unwary).
8 of the 11 Defined Market Economic Sectors have had downward trajectory for the past 12-15 months. The 3 Sectors showing any form of performance are consumer subsistence related Sectors and sub-sectors.
Just call on your brother when you need a hand we all need someone to lee ean on.
Is anyone really surprised you got lawlessness from the top down immorality from the bottom up, I could quote scripture but frankly there’s just too much to choose from. However “holding the form of religion but denying the power therein”quit your whining and sniveling.
It’s called the good book for a reason and you are without excuse.
A generation ill-prepared for a depression or civil war.
survival of the fittest.
Hell, they’re not even accostomed to hard work, let alone war
3 months ago houses all around me were selling within 2-3 days, receiving multiple offers sometimes for 10’s of thousands over asking. Houses listed since mid-late May through today, not so much, and quite a few have dropped in asking price by 30k-50k and going off Zillow they are not getting anywhere near the # of views/saves the early spring sellers did.
In my SW Ohio neighborhood the few house offered for sale generally sold overnight. I kid you not.
Now the only house offered is just sitting there…
Too many have allowed this kind of crap for decades. I remember when Clinton was pres. & so many thought they were flying high on the hog & I just kept shaking my head. I knew the fall was coming. Critical Thinking & Common Sense died a slow, painful death decades ago! We have Selections–not, elections! The elites own the 3 branches, state officials & the police who’ve become weaponized robots!
I’d say Stagflationary Depression, tbh. And I don’t think we’ve hit the second part yet, just the first. No one asked why the Fed will continue to raise rates, even though it won’t stop inflation on food/gas (so, just inflation) by Powell’s own admission.
We are in Denver CO today. What a nasty place to live. I’m sorry Denver boosters, dirt, homelessness, armed security for stores, empty store fronts, smog. Yikes!
You are so right Buckwheat and the bums begging are just nasty.
I called the authorities last winter when I was downtown and a bum begging had a kid with him.
A guy had a little girl around six or seven and they were begging on the street around ten thirty or so on a freezing cold morning.
So I called the authorities, which I usually do not do, because it was just too cold for the kid to be out and about in skimpy clothes even if she was home schooled, and she was way to little to be in traffic walking up to cars and knocking on windows asking for money.
About thirty minutes later when I drove by again the man was still there but the little girl was gone so I do not know what happened exactly but maybe I was not the only one that called and something was done.
That was the only time in about six years or so that I have been in down town Denver, we usually drive through on our way to Fort Collins to see our son and his family.
Finally this article has answered a question I had for months. Let me explain. Several months ago, everyday for weeks I kept getting calls from Chase, New York. I never answered so I let voice mail catch the calls. It was a different person daily from the mortgage lending section wanting me to take out a mortgage and saying now was the right time.
I was becoming annoyed by these calls and messages after about a week, because my house and property have been paid for for years. Also , I have an account at a local Chase branch bank, and if I had wanted a “mortgage” I would be asking for it there, not New York City. The calls went on for weeks and I was wondering why different people daily, giving their name, and acting like they personally knew me kept calling and saying “if you need a mortgage, please call, so in so, and they would help me get the best mortgage rate..
Now, it appears these people were making cold calls desperate to get mortgages on their record to keep from getting canned in the “great” 🙄 Biden economy that they most likely voted for. Therefore, be like the “dirty” coal miners you Wall Street liberal greenies despise and caused to be put out of work (laid off) because of your “glowbull warming” crap. AND….”learn how to code”. Sorry…not sorry. 🤣
I am getting calls and mailers from the same bank and a few others BOA and Wells Fargo. They keep trying to push us into a refinance or a home equity loan. We are twenty months out from making our last payment. Five years ahead of schedule. They are nuts if they think we would even consider getting into another loan. We also get investors that are pushing us to sell to them.
Bottom feeders send me letters all the time.
I tell them to F off.
The Fed Reserve, Shelf Corporations, and You
http://www.paulstramer.net/2022/06/the-fed-reserve-shelf-corporations-and.html
I believe most people expected the mortgage industry to take a hit as soon as the interest rates started to rise; less demand means fewer employees needed.
My daughter in law is a loan officer at a medium size regional bank.
She just took a $14,000 pay cut to keep her job. Every loan officer had the same offer. Some retired or quit. The rest, major pay cut.
Not looking good.
Watch “days on market”.
That’s gonna grow and price reductions are on the way.
The last gaspers are still holding out for “their price”.
Math doesn’t care about your politics.
Makes sense. Besides everything else, if Blackrock owns every dwelling, who needs mortgage lenders? \s 😬
In my city (in a conservative state), I’m seeing 1/3 of the houses for sale have CUT their asking prices: some by as much as $25-$50,000, but most by $5000. Even last year, the 24 houses I tracked sold for an average of $3700 less than their asking price. The prices are absurdly high: they went up ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND dollars for mediocre 1960s ranch houses in ONE YEAR, and people are really balking at being taken for fools.
x