A six-month survey of battleground “swing voters,” those who chose Barack Obama in 2012, then President Trump in 2016, has found that most not only plan to stick with the Republican but expect him to be reelected by a wide margin.
Overall, the survey said that 68% of swing voters polled in Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are voting for Trump. They believe that he has done a good job with the economy and is “working hard” to end the coronavirus crisis.
The “Swing Voter Project” from Engagious, a partner in the “Back to Normal Barometer” often featured in Secrets, and the Schlesinger Group found that swing voters expect Trump to win reelection.
And notably, while the media has put the blame for the expanding coronavirus on the president’s desk, swing voters are far more forgiving and give him credit for fighting it.
“Criticism of President Trump’s pandemic response has become a centerpiece of the Biden campaign; however, most of our swing voters don’t blame the president for the negative impacts of the coronavirus. They believe this is an unprecedented situation and President Trump is doing the best he can and as well as any other president would have, following the advice of experts,” said the survey provided to Secrets.
“It’s notable that despite nearly half of our Obama-Trump voters being ‘less confident now’ or ‘still not confident now,’ many of them are planning to vote for President Trump anyway. They generally believe he is working hard to solve the problem and the coronavirus situation isn’t his fault. They believe our country was doing well before the pandemic,” said the survey.
And most think they are better off under Trump. “The good news for the Trump campaign — in stark contrast to swing state polling showing Biden ahead — is that swing voters credit the president for the strong economy pre-pandemic. Even with the impact of the pandemic on their lives, most say they’re better off now than they were four years ago. He is like no other politician they have experienced in their lifetime and they believe he is working hard and standing up for our country,” said the analysis.
While the report is good news for the Trump campaign, other polls show that he could need all of those Obama-to-Trump swing voters to win again, and he doesn’t have them.
But the situation is improving for the president, with swing voters showing a greater respect and closeness with the GOP than Democrats.
Over the half-year-long project, the report said, “this theme has come up repeatedly among our swing voters. In April, our swing voters reflected on how the two parties have changed in the Trump era. They thought the Democratic Party has gotten worse.” Then, it added, “In May, our swing voters indicated they believe the Democratic Party has changed for the worse in the Trump era.” And “In August, our swing voters told us why they believe the Republican Party better reflects their values.”
