We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is. Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region. That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.
The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.
Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected. The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate. The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.
The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent. The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month. It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.
(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)
I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.
When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher. Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.
Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more. You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.
You can see from Table A (above) that finished good prices are still climbing. That’s the higher price inflation you are feeling when you buy a product.
More alarming is to look at the “intermediate demand” products [Table B below] as they flow through the manufacturing system. Two types of products are at the intermediate wholesale level: Processed Goods, and Unprocessed goods.
I have again modified Table B (above) to remove the noise. Notice two key aspects:
(1) Prices for both types of products are still climbing in the manufacturing process. Compare August, Sept., Oct., and now November, noticing how the prices are still climbing. Some of that has to do with energy and fuel costs still climbing. The increasing price for gasoline is built into each part of the transportation process.
(2) Notice the scale of the increase in the prices from prior months. The trend line is not leveling off, instead it’s doing the opposite. The rate of inflationary climb (price increase), at the intermediate level of goods coming into the system, is getting even more steep. The stuff coming into the manufacturing process is not only costing more, it is costing much more than before.
The wholesale prices of products into the system that end up at the retail level are still through the roof. In a major way, this is being driven by massive increases in energy costs throughout the entire supply chain.
This is going to get even uglier. Even if wages jumped in price 5% overnight (single month), which would be a large increase in wages, those wage increases are nowhere near enough to deal with this level of price increase at a consumer level. A nickel more per dollar earned is futile against a loaf of bread costing $1 more, or gasoline at $4.00/gal.
Do what you can now to start preparing your weekly budget in ways you may not have thought about before. Shop sales, use coupons, look for discounts and products that can be reformulated into multiple meals or multiple uses. Shelf-stable food products that can be muti-purposed with proteins is a good start.
Consider purchasing the raw materials for cleaning products, and reformulate them yourself to avoid these massive increases in petroleum costs.
Remember, when inflation hits like this, you can NATURALLY expect an eventual demand side response. People will stop purchasing things, because those things are just too expensive. When that happens, the inflationary spike can/will start to level off as the demand slows and excess inventory builds, albeit with higher prices built into the unaffordable existing inventory.
Unfortunately this drop in demand, a contraction in the economy, is what’s known as a recession. That leads to layoffs and unemployment, which only exacerbates the problems and puts downward pressure on wages – while the prices remain high.
Joe Biden spending more to try and subsidize people through this inflationary economic cycle only makes things worse for the middle class. More spending results in more inflation, which requires more subsidy, which requires more spending, which creases more inflation.
Your goal is to prepare yourself and your family for that moment when the economy starts contracting – yet prices remain high. If you can avoid future expenses by taking action before the highest prices hit, you will be in a better position. Be proactive with your household maintenance, and think about things that normally hit your monthly budget unexpectedly.
Try to avoid any unexpected expenses your memory provides you, by doing what you can do now.
Act or be acted upon.
Protect your family. Even if, heck, especially if, your kids or grandkids cannot see what is coming. Prepare yourself to help them even if they don’t know, or won’t admit, they will need the help. Be wise in your counsel, but do not alarm. Do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Fellowship is not only needed, it is critical.
It is empowering to be prepared for the storms of life, just as it is to be prepared in advance of storms from weather.
Can someone more educated about this please explain to me how the price of silver and gold keeps dropping? I figured a Biden admin would be disastrous for the economy and would result in precious metals jumping but every time I look, they drop lower. I know the market is manipulated a bit, but what gives?
If S**t Hits The Fan, what good are gold bricks?
If you are starving, how many gold bricks would you trade for a butchered cow or a bucket of beans?
All of them. No doubt food is better than eating metal, lol. I bought about six months worth of rice, beans, tuna, flour, oil, etc because it sure does seem like rough times are on the horizon,. I bought a small amount of silver to trade for things I undoubtedly forgot to procure. I’m just surprised to see the price of metals dropping. I guess I foolishly believed they were a good “store of wealth” in bad times.
On another note, thank you from the bottom of my heart for all you do. I’ve been a follower for many years and owe you a debt of gratitude for how much you’ve opened my eyes.
Ask Crassus…
Oh God, how you are so right.
I tell my friends, what do you think our tiny town’s local grocery store is going to do with your gold brick, or when you walk into your local place to pay your utility bill?!
Glad you just said it in common sense!
Thank you! 👍
So, they are going to take your chickens to pay your G&E bill?
I do agree that for most folks, gold is an impractical store of wealth, or medium of trade for day-to-day living, but buying groceries? “Junk” silver dimes and quarters will very probably be the tender of choice when the dollar inflates.
Well Sundance, how about asking someone you know who grows more food than they could consume, or raises chickens for fresh meat/eggs if they would accept pre-1965 US 90% silver coins instead of fake money (greenbacks) when hyper-inflation takes hold. You ask what good are gold bricks? Gold and silver are objective money. (Yes, smaller coins are easier to spend.) The govt can’t counterfeit it. All of monetary history shows that REAL money survives, and can be traded for necessary goods when official paper becomes worthless. Not to advocate retreating to a nuclear war proof underground shelter, but simple prudence dictates storing some food, means of heating and cooking if the grid breaks down, and yes, hard money for trade. Ammunition, too, if you value self defense. That’s why people have insurance… and fire extinguishers.
All of them
junk silver – dimes, quarters and halves are what I own
There is another option…..those little bottles of liquor that all liquor stores (I think) carry or ammunition (hahaha) or cigarettes all to trade with individuals….not grocery stores. I’ve got a lot of canned beans (and I don’t even like ’em) but if times get tough and I don’t have anything to eat, I WILL eat those darn things. Or maybe I’d rather not. At that point and if the country is going to hell, who cares? (I don’t have any kids so I can think that way) You also have to understand I’ve already lost everything I loved, so really, I don’t give a —-and there is nobody who cares whether I live or die anyway.
How about a little cheese with that whine. I hate me too. 😎 LOL!
Sure wish I could do something nice for you right now, Dixie. Have always enjoyed your posts, and would love to have a friend & neighbor like you. It’s awful losing people. You just can’t replace longtime relationships. Chin up.
Nice words, Peoria, and thank you. I’m trying but after reading through this whole depressing thread and all the preparations people are making, I give up……it’s just easier to give up. I’ma gonna let that ole demented geezer in the white house win my personal battle anyway.
I got beans if anybody wants them…..! I’d be glad to give them to you. I hate beans anyway. I’m laughing myself to oblivion but at least I’m laughing.
P. S. No offense Sundance. I know you are trying to keep all of us informed. It’s just more than I can handle.
I can make some fantastic bean dishes you’d enjoy, but would rather offer you a libation right now, ha!
Been going through some stuff myself. As the years pass, and you lose those close to you, it’s depressing. Times are tough, and everybody already has their own clan. Most of them, I wouldn’t want to be around, anyway. 😉
Sometimes, I wish there were a way for like-minded, conservative, patriotic folks without family to pool our resources and get a big plot of land and take care of each other. Or leave each other alone, as the case may be.
Dixie, I know nothing about you, but what I do know is you never give up. G_d gave you life and he expects you to value it and fight to your last breath, G_d Bless you
Dixie is awesome, but I understand her despair. These threads often lead to prepper suggestions which are unreasonable for older people, or those who don’t own land.
Not long ago, I asked for practical ideas for the rest of us – who can’t raise chickens, plant a huge garden, store a generator, or side of beef, or even go hunting. No suggestions. Sad.
(Would love to see a thread dedicated to this, and would provide some of my own tips.)
PJ,
Here is a suggestion for the “rest of us.” Get to know people who CAN do those things that you can’t, and see if there is any way you can be of assistance to them. Child care, food preparation, helping other elderly, even being able to tell amusing and interesting stories will all be of use.
When it all goes to pieces, people are going to look around and very carefully assess who they know and who in that group has proven themselves to be trustworthy and useful. If you can’t be one of those doing the assessing, at least be one of those who are going to be assessed positively.
Very true, but easier for folks like me who are still working full-time. Even if they aren’t my friends, I know many co-workers and customers.
But for someone retired and alone, this becomes another hurdle. It is good advice, though.
NEVER QUIT!! OR GIVE UP!
Stay positive and make new friends. You have to be a friend to get a friend. I lost mine too….I just out on my big boy pants…and started a new life in another country. Years ago. I just got married at 71 years young. Never give up!
Have a great day…cheers.
Is now the time to start a new investing account, to short the market??
Not asking for advice, I am hedged. Just curious on others opinions.
True in an apocalyptic scenario but we’re not there yet.
There is always someone who makes money out of crisis (recession, depression etc) and these people do not invest their profits in paper money which is inflating.
They buy hard assets including gold. There is ALWAYS a market for gold.
For full disclosure, I have an interest in gold (miners specifically, not the metal).
Silver is an industrial metal. If a slowdown in industrial use is expected then that could affect the price.
Gold now has a competitor, crypto currencies, so there are other places to turn. People have generally put money in the stock market for inflation protection verses gold in countries with failing currencies prior to to turning to gold for protection.
Other than a small insurance stash, I am generally against gold as an investment.
April 5, 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt issued a decree that made it illegal for Americans to own gold. Any American caught owning gold after that date would be hit with a federal felony prosecution and face a penalty of up to five to ten years in jail and a $10,000 fine. U.S. President Gerald Ford rescinded the 40-year ban on ownership of gold coins and bullions in August 1974.
Could Biden issue the same decree as FDR?
Biden hasn’t found the decree yet, but when he does, he will.
Yes, anything to stick the knife into us deeper.
Exactly 💯
FDR, “issued a decree”(mandates,executive orders,etcetera)
Whatever those in power will or won’t allow as acceptable forms of payment to do business.
I no longer doubt these globalists tyrannical capabilities.
These last 2 years have given great clarity as to their abilities to effectively reset whatever they are planning including acceptable forms of payments.
I would enjoy gold and silver as acceptable forms of payment for doing business but it doesn’t look like that will be a reality when an FDR type “mandate” for commercial business resets are established.
They’ve got “F-15s and Nuclear weapons” to enforce the New World 🌎 Order.
See 👀 “Australia 🇦🇺” and “New Zealand 🇳🇿” Tyranny.
The authorities could and probably will just as easily issue a decree confiscating food and prohibit the stockpiling of food like happened during the Holodomor. I also have no illusions that these power hungry tyrants will enjoy making our lives miserable.
Venezuela stole food from citizens who the Communist Government claimed were hoarding.
Pre 1965 silver coinage is legal tender.
Except old gold coins can be kept as collectibles. FDR had the banks buy the gold coins at a little over the actual price. When everyone had turned in their 20 dollar (1 oz) coin for a set amount around 22.00 dollars in paper. (I think) The actual worth of the 1 oz gold coin was fixed at $33.00 an oz. I think the US Government was going to do something similar with Silver but there was too much in circulation to be able to store. The gold supposedly went to Ft. Knox in Kentucky where it is today. (Maybe) It is the US Government after all.
No. There was a law which allowed FDR to write an EO, but a new law was passed in Aug 74 making it legal again.
To kill the dollar. Its manipulated to be honest. Look up the Hunt brothers.
I invested in gold, silver and ammunition. The gold is for big things I might need, like getting home or buying something I really need. The silver is easily bartered for everyday things like food or supplies. The ammunition is for whatever ammunition is needed for. I saw the other day that 100 dollars in 1960’s dollars is today worth 11 dollars. So in my lifetime, 1953 to present!, the dollar has lost 90% of its value. And it looks like it’s getting smaller. And as a Life Scout…..my motto still is…..Be Prepared!
Two words. Disposable income. You cant invest if you cant spare it.
Commodities to survive out weigh precious metals. Energy saves years, on our lives, gold brick?
Energy is the fountain of youth, to modern humans, because we made it more affordable to more humans than any time in history. Energy is the secret to our future, as human beings.
Mother Earth is the supplier of the precious minerals we need to invent, innovate and produce a climate, to thrive on this incredible planet. The electric car was the 1st horseless carriage, it failed, the combustion engine used less energy and performed better and faster. Better and faster saves energy.
Solar? Our first source of energy. Not very innovative. Windmills? Please!
Obama and Nancy have bought houses, where Algore said would be under water, 10 years ago.
Maybe they know something, they’re lying to us about.
The market isn’t just manipulated a bit, it is totally manipulated with “Paper Gold”
That’s gold sold on paper but never physically delivered. The price of gold has to be kept artificially low or the paper gold sellers would lose hundreds of billions.
The paper price is manipulated. There are many times more paper contracts than actual deliverable bullion.
Very few contracts are exercised for physical delivery of the metal. If everyone demanded delivery of the physical commodity, the paper price would fall to zero, while, the physical bullion price would shoot to the moon.
The futures/commodity markets don’t provide their stated goal of consumption smoothing and price stabilization. The banks actually use gold and silver commodity markets for price suppression of the metal — giving people fewer alternatives to easily manipulated fiat currencies such as the dollar.
Gold, as Sundance points out below, isn’t worth a bucket of beans when the system collapses, and, you are hungry. The system has to run off uniformity, the golden rule, morals and ethics, or, it collapses no matter the currency. That is what has been lost.
Good Topic SD. Amongst the comments are real solid advice and ideas.
This would be a good topic to keep active for wisdom and guidance. There is no one coming to help or support us (nor should we care) for at least three years other than here, our community/church and family.
What Carter did to us looks like peanuts compared to what this crowd has planned.
Quick lesson on inflation. Four years ago a 9 mm was .18 a round and we could buy 5, 10 or as many as we wanted boxes at a time. Just 11 months into this beauty it is .29 a round with many vendors limiting the amount you can buy to two or less.
What? 9 mm at .29?!
Where?
All of the trusted on-line retailers are selling name-brand brass-cased fmj at at least .40/round.
Maybe Russian steel-cased stuff is going for .29 c / round.
I hate steel and refuse to use it unless I have to. SIL was at local range in NH and picked up the rounds there. They are brass, just confirmed.
Have a lot of brass. Had a friend who is an avid reloader. Trouble is he is a selfish, backstabing, narcissist egotist who would screw me over in a heartbeat. But if what you say is true Rob, I may have rushed to judgement and maybe he is not so bad after all. Gee hope I still have his number.
Pssst….the same people that caused the last great depression will cause the next great worldwide depression.
The eye of that hurricane is far closer to Florida than depicted here.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board determines a highly inflationary economy to have an annual inflation growth rate at 26% per year over the course of three consecutive years. Is LGB saying “hold my Depends” to eclipse that mark? This was part of intermediate accounting textbooks in the late 1970s when I first learned about it. It is not even covered now.
In Realville, the recession will take place long before that rate of inflation happens.
Buy a few books on thrift, starting with The Complete Tightwad Gazette. It contains a lot of make do ideas and recipes.
The best “book” on thrift was growing up poor with parents who had survived the depression and were grateful for everything they had.
My family doesn’t have land mass to prep as some do.
But within our residences, we set up shelving to hold a lot of can and dry good food items.
I’m a southerner and love beans and rice. Could live on that for years and never get tired of it.
Most here prolly know about this item, but for those who don’t, Mylar bags can preserve food for a long time, including flour, oats, etc.
Small investment for long term food preservation.
Just sayin!
Wish you all well in coming days of whatever is ahead of us.
But never forget, God is ahead that.
He expects us to use our common sense of preparation and do what we are able to do…and if that runs out, He will be there to take up the slack.
But this can’t be true, the Usurper’s handlers assured us that inflation, and the supply chain crisis, were only temporary. I mean, if you can’t trust your coup handlers, who can you trust?
We are debt free thanks to Ms. wundrin, so retirement $$ is budgeted for shopping, gas, property taxes, the unexpected, etc. 2 full pantries of canned goods and dry goods. Picked up a smaller chest freezer after initial covid scamdemic started. Paid cash for a hybrid last May, and its amazing how far you can go on 10 gals.
For the worst case 1800s scenario: purchase yourself a pellet rifle as rabbits are plentiful even in urban areas. The noise wont attract much attention, pellets are plentiful, and you dont need a background check for purchase. Learn how to make snares as a back-up, and you can also catch fish with a tree branch, nylon twine, and a hook. Learn about edible plants, as they can also be found in urban areas. Some plants are fibrous and rope and clothing can be made from them.
Ill disagree with SD here, but gold and silver will still be used as barter…….but ammo would be SO much better. There are battery powered generators out there that can be charged quickly with 400w solar panels, and can be run inside the home with less noise. Wife and I are looking at getting one.
https://www.homedepot.com/p/ECOFLOW-3300-Watt-Peak-Output-DELTA-Push-Button-Start-Portable-Battery-Power-Station-6xAC-Outlets-Solar-Generator-for-Outdoors-DELTA/316725019
Rabbits, squirrels and game birds will be gone in a few days.
“One Second After” is a good primer for what comes next.
Soylent Green is a good alternative.
Arizona desert resident. I suppose an adult javelina would feed me for a while. Javelina aren’t in the hog family so don’t know if it’ll taste like pork . . . .
During the Great Depression with a much smaller population of people the deer herd in the US was nearly wiped out in short order, and, it did not recover for decades in some areas until appropriate game management brought it back.
Yeah, vote demoncrat again! /sarc off!
“well then I’ll have your spam…I love it!”
my Nov bill was higher than Feb normally is. egads.
It’s obvious the powers-that-be are intentionally trying to crater our economy, but do they really think they can survive the ensuing chaos?
If things get *real* I don’t think the oligarchs have thought this through. They may THINK they have, but once panic and desperation set in, like a wild fire, controlling events becomes extremely difficult at best, and impossible at worst.
Or, maybe the oligarchs think they can jet off to New Zealand until things calm down–assuming there is anything left for them to return to.
Yeah, thanks FJB. You are such an evil idiot.
Reading this thread, I can definitely say I am thankful that Sundance, and fellow Treepers, have been predicting this since January. I have had time to prepare, as well as my family. I don’t have a lot of the *really* good survival tips implemented- generator, don’t know how to hunt (but do know how to fish), and canning capabilities. But, I do have basic food, medical, everyday usage items stocked.
Imagine how many people are going to be caught unaware in the upcoming months…
Sounds like you’re prepped to about the same level as I am. There’s no fishing around here (desert) but I do have four good laying hens.
Funny how prepping brings out one’s priorities. The first thing I did was buy several large containers of ground coffee.
Can’t live without my morning cup of coffee, I bought shelf stable half and half, too….
Seems like every time Dems are in charge, we start prepping and preparing for the end times. I wonder why that is?
I was at the grocery store today.
One of the products that used to cost $12….is now $17.
And the cottage cheese brand I always buy …
had watered it down so much that instead of being thick and creamy …it poured out like soup when I went to put some with our salad. I assume they thinned it out instead of jumping the price .
It’s already getting bad out there.
The trend looks like it’s about to top out.
For unprocessed goods, the price increases peaked at 59.2 in April 2021 – 1 year after the pandemic began – this figure has now declined to 52.5 in November, down from 54.9 in October. As the higher months start to wash out, this should continue to decline.
For processed goods, the increase in November 2021 (+1.5) is only slightly higher than December 2020 (+1.4) and lower than all the figures for January 2021 (1.8) through to July 2021 (1.6) – this number going forward – at least from January 2022 – is likely to start trending down on the overall figure.
Obviously the figures will still be elevated, but as far as I can see there is no specific evidence Inflation is set to take off further.
As the Fed pulls back on spending over $100 Billion per month into the this should put a hand-brake on Inflation.
In terms of the November Final Demand Number of 9.6, that comes after a November 2021 reading of +0.8. This is higher than the December 2020 reading of +0.3 – so this number would be expected to increase to over 10% in December 2021. However, the January 2021 reading is +1.8 – which is higher – one could very easily read this as topping out in December 2021.
I still believe Inflation is transitory – why? – Because the US has record amounts of debt and that is weighing the economy down and causing a deflationary force.
Sure, it was not a 3-5 month transitory – more like an 18-24 month transitory – but transitory none the less.
In an ideal situation, this would mean that while Inflation remains elevated throughout 2022 it will begin to decline towards the end of 2022 – just after the Democrats are slaughtered in the Mid-Terms.
I would add – if I’m right and Inflation is “transitory” – albeit over 18-24 months, this couldn’t be better for Republicans.
Republicans ride a wave of Inflation to Big Victories in the 2022 Mid-Terms and then get all the credit for controlling Inflation in 2023/24 in the run-up to the Presidential Election.
This would be EVEN BETTER if PRESIDENT TRUMP became SPEAKER TRUMP in January 2023.
EVEN BETTER.
There is only ONE currency that matters. Your relationship with God. I read the Lords Prayer on this very site each and every morning. Then I stop, and pick up my Bible and read the word of God. This level of greed and destruction has been going on since the beginning of time and this is no different. God, and ONLY God, through our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, is the only salvation. Have Faith, hunker down and pray. We only have “stuff” to lose. Our souls are safe and sound. Enjoy the miracle of Today that the Lord has made. Be at Peace. Those who worship money and stuff are the ones who will be impacted the most. The very stuff they scurry about trying to save will soon return to the earth as dust. Having this kind of faith is all that matters.
Soon the public will see inflation of 7% with interest rates of 1% means every $10k in bank loses $600 spending power a year.
Monies leaving banks will add another layer to what’s coming.