Republicans could be poised for massive gains in the state of Florida thanks to the upcoming redistricting process that the GOP is set to control in the state.
“FLORIDA: if you thought things couldn’t get worse for Dems…it can. FL could be the GOP’s biggest redistricting weapon of 2021,” Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman said on Twitter. “FL is poised to gain two seats. At a minimum, Rs could easily add two new safe R seats (right) to the current 16R-11D map (left).”
Because the FL Sup Ct has turned sharply right since 2015, Rs could be even more aggressive – in defiance of FL’s Fair Districts amendments.
At the extreme end, Rs could attempt a 21R-8D gerrymander (below), which could cost Dems almost their entire House majority. pic.twitter.com/uxl8hiliJo
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 2, 2021
Wasserman included photos of two maps, one showing the current configuration of the state’s congressional districts and one showing a hypothetical map after the redistricting process. With Florida set to gain two seats this decade, Wasserman said it would be easy for the GOP to ensure both of those seats are Republican.
But Wasserman pointed out there is also a bigger nightmare scenario for Democrats, one in which a more aggressive gerrymander of the Florida map could erase the party’s current slim U.S. House majority.
“Because the FL Sup Ct has turned sharply right since 2015, Rs could be even more aggressive – in defiance of FL’s Fair Districts amendments,” Wasserman said. “At the extreme end, Rs could attempt a 21R-8D gerrymander (below), which could cost Dems almost their entire House majority.”
That map would put Democratic Reps. Stephanie Murphy, Charlie Crist, and Al Lawson in districts that supported former President Donald Trump by double-digits in 2020.
Wasserman said that “might help explain why Murphy & Crist are threatening statewide bids.”
Republicans are feeling bullish about their chances to regain their majority in the House of Representatives in 2022 after the 2020 election saw the party make surprisingly large gains. The result was the Democrats’ slimmest House majority since World War II, putting them in danger of losing the majority altogether in the next election.
Republicans made matters worse for Democrats by expanding their already tight grip on state legislatures in 2020, ensuring the GOP will have the most control over the redistricting process in many key areas across the country.
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“Both parties went into the election with a chance to draw more congressional districts than the other, but the end result was just about the best-case scenario for Republicans,” noted FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver. “Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent.”
