- The economy will stage a "big V" rebound from its second-quarter lows over the next few months, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman said on Monday.
- Economic reopenings will drive the first bounce-back but fail to bring the US back to 2019 levels of activity, he said during the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual conference.
- A viable coronavirus vaccine will drive the second stage of recovery, and "people are much more optimistic" that one will come to market faster than in the past, the CEO added.
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The economy's turnaround from coronavirus-related lows will arrive in the form of a steep V-shaped rebound, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman said on Monday.
At the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual conference, the chief executive laid out a two-stage recovery, with an economic reopening sparking a rapid rebound from the bottom set in the second quarter. Where the Federal Reserve's liquidity-boosting measures drove a sharp run-up for risk assets, easing of widespread lockdowns will prompt a similar pattern for economic activity, Schwarzman said.
"You'll also see a big V in terms of the economy going up for the next few months because it's been closed," he said. "And as people are allowed to go back, the economy will really respond a lot."
He continued: "But there's only so much the economy that's highly complex can respond, just because not all things go up equally, and it will take quite a while before we sync up and get back to 2019 levels."
A viable coronavirus vaccine is needed to unlock a broader bounce-back for the US economy, the CEO said. Biotech and pharmaceutical giants including Gilead, Moderna, and Pfizer are racing to introduce the first marketable vaccine. Roughly 130 candidates are being developed, and it's likely that at least one will arrive sooner than expected, Schwarzman said.
"That we'll go 0-for-130 really seems remote," Schwarzman said, adding, "I think people are much more optimistic that that's going to occur on a timeframe that's way different than the development of vaccines was in the past."
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