Demanding new elections following Alexander Lukashenko’s overturning of their Aug. 9 vote to remove him, Belorussians secured an important symbolic victory on Monday.
It came with Lukashenko’s open act of political submission to President Vladimir Putin of Russia. It matters for a couple of reasons.
First, because Lukashenko has spent the past few years presenting himself as an independent-minded strongman, someone who won’t bow to any foreign leader, whether that be President Trump, Angela Merkel, or yes, Putin. But while Lukashenko might still claim that he’ll never yield to pressure from Trump or Merkel, he simply cannot make that assertion with regards to Putin. No longer, at least.
After all, in a very pathetic show of submission on Monday, Lukashenko traveled to Sochi, Russia, to let Putin know that he knows who is boss. Begging Putin for a $1.5 billion loan, Lukashenko stated, “Some recent events have shown that we should stay closer to our elder brother and cooperate in all fields, including [with regards to the] economy.”
This is a clear bending of the knee, likely demanded off-camera by Putin, of deference towards the Russian leader. It is designed to show the Belorussian security and oligarchical class, and Putin’s security inner circle, that Lukashenko has been brought to heel. In true Putin form, the Russian leader accepted Lukashenko’s newfound humility by slouching back in his chair. The Russian people will get the message — as will the world.
There’s a striking contrast here with Lukashenko’s escalating rhetoric against Putin as recently as February. Back then, Lukashenko was offering blood-and-soil rhetoric on how he would relentlessly resist Putin’s efforts to see his nation absorbed into a Russian state or a confederation. In February, Lukashenko pledged that he would always “fight for our Belarus to remain sovereign and independent on this plot of land. This is not only for us; it is for our children.” Today, Lukashenko is saying that Belarus must become a Kremlin serf. By Lukashenko’s own standards, he’s a pathetic traitor.
But it’s not surprising. Like a steroid user who doesn’t do any leg work, Lukashenko isn’t the strongman he presents himself to be. He’s just a clown seeking praise. Rather than leave power without bloodshed, Lukashenko has chosen to retain power at the price of becoming Putin’s newest pet and seeing Belarus becoming Putin’s newest outpost.
The United States and the European Union should not stand for this thievery of Belarus’s better democratic future. Trump should warn Lukashenko that unless he agrees to call new elections, new sanctions will be imposed — including secondary sanctions on those who deal with him. In a similar manner, Putin should be warned that any Russian security deployment to corral the Belorussian people will result in new sanctions on his energy economy. Considering European anger over the poisoning of Alexey Navalny, there is a rare consensus that action against Putin is necessary.
